The Difference between Logarithmic and Exponential – Covid-19

Now, more than ever, it is important to know the difference.

“Flatten the curve” works for linear graphs. But we’re increasingly seeing exponential growth plotted on logarithmic graphs.

The notion of “flattening the curve” has become the popular way that people have come to understand quarantine measures. The idea is that the curve depicting coronavirus infections is rising sharply, but that if we socially distance and quarantine ourselves, we can flatten the peak of that curve and prevent the medical system from being overwhelmed.

But this idea is being plotted in two different ways: linearly and logarithmically. Logarithmic graphs make more sense for exponential curves like coronavirus cases and deaths, but they also must also be read differently than linear graphs.

 

Source and continue reading:
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/7kz3a4/how-to-read-the-coronavirus-graphs

 

 

 

 

 

Covid-19 – Confirmed Cases – Michigan

Confirmed cases and confirmed cases over time.

Delta reason: State of Michigan data set does not include Unassigned and Out Of State.

Working on a Net New Cases for Michigan next

Screenshot 2020-04-06 14.03.18.png

 

Screenshot 2020-04-06 14.04.31.png

 

 

 

Source: https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/
https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.who.int_emergencies_diseases_novel-2Dcoronavirus-2D2019_situation-2Dreports&d=DwMFaQ&c=n6-cguzQvX_tUIrZOS_4Og&r=ZNGvwmzlj8kMBY6JiOVCuA&m=I4tRzMk97krELxTlEBHo8DfBIHceLgA3njBSxpFaSkY&s=Kqo9h3kYNxWfxMkTXGNLn2mEPiaPYMNXyv6MBhwWxrQ&e=

Covid-19 Spring Break Cell Spider

Returning home from Spring Break:

Looks like New York and Detroit are pretty hot spots

Screen Shot 2020-03-29 at 10.30.27 PM.png

Source:

https://kottke.org/20/03/cellphone-data-shows-how-quickly-partying-spring-breakers-spread-across-the-country

People on Spring Break in Florida for the past couple of weeks were famously unconcerned with social distancing measures implementing in other areas of the country to help stem the tide of COVID-19 infections and save lives. Using cellphone location data from just the phones of the people gathered on a single beach in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, this video shows just how far those people spread across the country when they went home, possibly taking SARS-CoV-2 with them. They go everywhere.

Read more on

https://kottke.org/20/03/cellphone-data-shows-how-quickly-partying-spring-breakers-spread-across-the-country

 

Covid-19 Net New Deaths in Italy

Something to look at in the coming days. As Net New Deaths in Italy decline, we may be able to expect to see the same result within 10 days here in the States.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Six Rules for Investing in a Crisis Market

 

COVID-19 Analytics – Michigan – March

Working to understand the declining curve in Michigan, when it does come:

Plotting cases by county:
See full map on Google Drive

 

Source:

Lancet Inf Dis Article: Here. Mobile Version: Here. Visualization: JHU CSSE. Automation Support: Esri Living Atlas team and JHU APLContact USFAQ.

Data sources: WHOCDCECDCNHCDXY1point3acresWorldometers.infoBNO, state and national government health departments, and local media reports.  Read more in this blog.

Downloadable database: GitHub: Here. Feature layer: Here.

Confirmed cases include presumptive positive cases.

Recovered cases outside China are estimates based on local media reports, and may be substantially lower than the true number.

Active cases = total confirmed – total recovered – total deaths.

Point level: County level – US; Province/State level – China, Canada, Australia; Country level – other countries. All points (except for Australia) shown on the map are based on geographic centroids, and are not representative of a specific address, building or any location at a spatial scale finer than a province/state. Australian dots are located at the centroid of the largest city in each state.

Visit the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center where our experts help to advance understanding of the virus, inform the public, and brief policymakers in order to guide a response, improve care, and save lives.

Note: All cases of COVID-19 in repatriated US citizens from the Diamond Princess are grouped together. These individuals have been assigned to various quarantine locations (in military bases and hospitals) around the US. This grouping is consistent with the CDC.

Covid-19 Link Dump

Some links and visualizations from today’s research on Covid-19 resulting from some of our high-level discussions within the Health Care community, and discussions with actual epidemiologists.

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

GBD Compare
https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/

BD Overview
https://ourworldindata.org/burden-of-disease
Share of total disease burden by cause, World, 2017

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-disease-burden-by-cause?stackMode=relative

Why it matters:

  • 50% of all confirmed cases have recovered as of 3/11/2020
  • Covid-19 is highly contagious, like the Spanish Flu of 1918, but far less deadly
  • Unlikely the Spanish Flu (a very similar H1N1 Avian strain of Influenza), the case fatality rate was 2.5% – but remember, that was 100 years ago.
  • The case fatality for Covid-19 is .6% – AND is it not deadly in most adults, so therefore, because fucking basic math, less fatalities will occur
  • Adults between the ages of 18 – 60 can be asymptomatic and should avoid contact with older adults (70+) especially those with Pre Existing Immunodeficient conditions
  • Avoid contact with people that have recently traveled to Iran, Italy, China, or the Pacific Northwest United States
  • The only reason to get tested is if you have been in contact with elderly Immunodeficient persons, you yourself have the flu, or you have traveled to or been in contact with people have
  • Wash your damn hands
  • Don’t touch your damn face
  • Be a smart person. Basic common sense will keep you alive and healthy

2020 Book List

The Leadership Challenge audiobook cover art The Leadership Challenge
The Deep Blue Good-by audiobook cover art The Deep Blue Good-By A Travis McGee Novel, Book 1, John D MacDonald
Phoenix audiobook cover art The Phoenix Project
The Way I Heard It audiobook cover art The Way I Heard It, Mike Rowe
Caffeine audiobook cover art Caffeine: How Caffeine Created the Modern World, Micheal Pollan
The Outsider cover art The Outsider, Stephen King

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